Affiliate Leaders went and spoke to a range of experts across the advertising and marketing community to get their thoughts on the latest IPA Bellwether report.
Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the latest IPA Bellwether found UK marketing budgets to have surged to their highest levels in years.
The Q1 2026 report found marketers revised spend by 7.3%, with more than a quarter (26.8%) increasing budgets compared with 19.5% who recorded a downgrade.
This resilience has been spearheaded by events, which saw the highest net increase. Other channels that saw renewed optimism were main media advertising and video.
Affiliate Leaders spoke to a range of industry experts to get their views on the latest Bellwether findings, and there seems to be a mixed sentiment about the figures.
Illusion vs reality
Cat Chappell, managing director UK, activation at Omincom, says the “disconnect between macro conditions and spend behaviour” stands out. “GDP is weakening, yet budgets are rising. That only happens when marketing is being held to a higher commercial standard, with spend concentrating into channels that can demonstrate return quickly and at scale.”
However, the risk with this is it “becomes inflationary rather than incremental”, she adds.
Maor Sadra, chief exec and co-founder of INCRMNTAL, agrees that this could make it easy to misread performance. “When you have external pressure – geopolitical instability, cost inflation, shifting demand – performance metrics tend to look better than they actually are.
Conversion rates go up, CPAs go down, and it creates a false sense of efficiency,” he explains.
“The rise in events and PR fits into that. These are channels where impact is harder to isolate, but easier to justify when results look strong at a top level. The risk is that marketers optimise into that illusion.”
For Jason Warner, managing director, UK and EMEA at programmatic advertising firm SBS, this isn’t necessarily about an illusion, it’s a sign that “industry confidence still lags, which tells you this is selective investment”.
“Clients want sharper thinking, faster execution and fewer layers between strategy and results,” he says.
So what does it say about the next phase of growth for the industry? For Warner, the current climate will not “automatically favour” the big players, but those that can “combine specialist expertise with joined-up delivery, without adding drag, cost or complexity”.
Whereas Sadra believes it will be about “whether teams can separate real impact from background noise”.
Economic uncertainty has become the norm
“Operating in a state of continuous global crisis has tragically become the norm. Yet, where UK advertisers would have previously pulled back spend, the fact that they haven’t proves that resilience has become well and truly hardwired into the industry,” says Phil Acton, country manager UK, Adform.
Acton believes the next era of the advertising industry will be defined by agentic AI. It’s no longer just a buzz word, in times of uncertainty it can help brands engage with consumers.
“[…] Consumers don’t live in silos. Empowered with clear guardrails and trusted partners, media buyers can now harness agentic scale and speed to bring together every screen for game-changing outcomes.
“True resilience isn’t just about surviving the next crisis, it’s about using sophisticated technology to keep your brand front and centre with consumers no matter what’s on the horizon,” he adds.
Jonathan Haines, managing director UK and Northern Europe, Equativ, believes the industry has simply become more disciplined at proving “quality, trust and measurable value” when spend is under pressure.
“That matters for publishers because it strengthens the case for curated supply, stronger audience relationships and premium inventory that delivers more than cheap reach,” he says.
“The next phase of recovery will increase pressure to justify every intermediary step in the supply chain and the costs attached. For advertisers, that means looking harder at where media runs and what value each layer adds. For publishers, it is a chance to shift the conversation from scale alone to the commercial power of transparency, attention and direct audience resonance.”
Marketing budgets still under scrutiny
Under the current geopolitical and economic climate, marketing budgets will continue to face scrutiny. Chief financial officers will be expecting clear returns from increasing marketing spend.
It’s also partly why video and online formats have also seen an upward trend in adspend. It reflects both the changing consumer behaviour and a “preference for marketers in environments that offer control, speed and measurable outcomes”, explains Chappell.
Matt Bahr, chief executive and co-founder at Fairing points out that contrary to the IPA Bellwether report, they are also seeing an “increase in influencer and audio advertising, rather than purely reach-based media”.
“[…] As discovery fragments across creators, communities and AI-driven environments, a significant share of influence is happening outside of what traditional attribution can capture. That creates a risk that budgets are optimised toward the channels that close demand, rather than those that create it.”
For Steph Hallam, co-founder of RAAS LAB, creative now matters more than ever as a key ingredient to showing relevance.
“Put simply, driving results means delivering creative in the right context. Even the most engaged audiences will ignore ads that don’t speak to their immediate needs or interests.
“Yet those that are worthy of attention will enjoy lasting brand impact. Advertisers that prioritise contextual relevance and AI-driven efficiencies will be best positioned to drive stronger engagement, deliver measurable outcomes, and sustain growth in an increasingly complex landscape.”
Selen Ozkan, head of CPG and retail, EMEA Uber Advertising, agrees, adding that in a “fragmented digital landscape bogged down by proxy metrics, scale alone won’t drive proven outcomes or long-term brand equity”.
“Digital media seamlessly intersects with consumers’ physical lives. To cut through the clutter and capture attention, advertising experiences must be grounded in utility, context, and trust. This means not only understanding the customer’s mindset through sophisticated technology, but also catering to it with top-notch, human-led creative.”
