Research from WARC and PHD predicts almost 4% of global spending will be AI agent facilitated by the end of the decade.
Agentic AI is projected to facilitate as much as 3.8% of global consumer spending by 2030, tripling the expectations for the current year, which sits at 1.3% (roughly $944bn).
Research from WARC and PHD has outlined the future of spending with agentic AI – and it is expected to reshape the consumer journey.
Agent-facilitated consumer spending will likely be concentrated in the top ten global markets – accounting for two-thirds (67.9%) of global spend by 2030.
The US share will make up 31.9% by 2030, which will be driven by consumers already familiar with digital commerce, and a market that already accommodates agents ready to deploy at scale.
China is close behind, with its agentic market sitting at $505.8bn (15.1% of global spend).
The UK is expected to capture 3.9% of global agentic AI spending ($131.2bn).
This will not impact all industries equally. PHD has identified for four modes where agentic AI will affect consumer spending. They are:
- Brand to consumer: where brands retain the most control over marginal purchasing decisions.
- Consumer to consumer: where word of mouth influences purchasing decisions.
- Agent to consumer: where agents recommend products to consumers and will hold the most influence in purchasing decisions.
- Agent to agent: where agentic communications influencer most marginal purchasing decisions.
Under agent to agent, the top three industry categories most impacted are telecommunications – expected to grow from $57.6bn in 2026 to $410.3bn by 2030; financial services – expected to increase 235.3% to $237.9bn; and travel, which is projected to grow 252.8% to $275.6bn.
The primary product categories that consumers are likely to use agentic technology for (agent to consumer) include alcoholic drinks, soft drinks, food, media and publishing, and retail – all sectors which carry a high-level of brand loyalty and habitual purchasing.
Consumers are expected to use agentic AI for drinks pairings, part planning, and occasions – automating the choice process for habit, convenience, and price-driven purchasing.
Media consumption is also likely to be affected as consumers will look to AI agents to help manage their subscriptions, recommendations, and content – all in a way that is digitally native and measurable. By 2030, agentic AI spending for media is expected to increase by 401.8% to $367.8bn.
Finally, the increasing frequency of omnichannel shopping and AI comparison tools is likely to spur on a growth in spending from $62.7bn in 2026 to $199.9bn in 2030.
Rohan Tambyrajah, worldwide chief strategy officer at PHD, said: “This research brings category level empiricism to the open-ended industry conversation about the growth opportunity with consumer facing AI and agentic AI. It underscores the need for brands to design for both meaning and machine logic.”
The consumer to consumer pipeline within categories like toiletries and cosmetics, and clothing and accessories are likely to be less impacted by AI, since they rely heavily on personal recommendations and word of mouth.
