Emarketer research shows OpenAI’s ad business is not doing great and is expected to generate a fraction of its projected revenue.
OpenAI’s ad business is set to fall short of its own revenue forecast by 90%, according to Emarketer.
The AI firm predicted its ad revenue would reach $2.5bn in 2026 and $100bn by 2030.
However, Emarketer data has forecast chatbot ads like ChatGPT, Amazon Alexa, Microsoft Copilot may generate $1bn in revenue this year in the US, and hit a ceiling of just $5.41bn by 2030.
So far in 2026, OpenAI along with Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are on course to bring in under $1bn in ad revenue – despite OpenAI’s projections that it would hit $2.5 billion by the end of this year.
OpenAI also currently has $1.4trn committed to data centre infrastructure projects over the next eight years.
The company started to trial ads in ChatGPT earlier this year and expects it to generate 36% of its total yearly revenue by the end of the decade. Although many AI models are finding it notoriously difficult to generate any income.
OpenAI is making a little progress with ads – the first six weeks of its ad trial saw an excess of $100m in annualised revenue. Forecasts for higher revenue per user in ChatGPT suggests the AI firm is planning to charge more for ads and potentially show ads to users more frequently.
As it stands, it charges roughly $60 per thousands ad views, which is more than rivals like Meta . The firm justifies the price with its incredibly engaged and intent-focused audiences.
The Microsoft-backed firm’s estimated 2024 revenue was $3.7bn – but it had $12.4bn in costs and expenses, which meant the net loss attributable to the company equated to $5.09bn, Carnegie Investment reported.
OpenAI has secured commitments for an unprecedented $122bn fundraise at a $730bn valuation – but pressure from shareholders to build income streams has been building.
