It is somewhat inevitable that industry-led studies of the prevalence of the black market will be utilised as “political tools”, claims a newly published academic review.
Led by researchers in Finland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway, the review notes that “methodological choices, data resources that have been used, and political interests can affect the kinds of estimates that are produced” by studies seeking to quantify the impact of the black market.
The ‘scoping review’, published in PLOS One, analysed 32 studies of the gambling industry in the Nordics. It revealed that there is no “gold standard” to conclusively measure offshore gambling – a vital statistic used to inform government policy, and often cited by operators in opposition to tightening regulation.
Through ‘key informant interviews’ with local authorities in the four countries reviewed, the study detailed the sentiment that the gambling industry is “actively attempting to control the narrative over channelling rates”, while finding that 11 of the 32 studies included in the analysis were funded by the industry.
“The politicisation or even industry capture of offshore estimates echoes prior academic literature on the important role of the gambling industry lobbying for commercial opportunities, under the guise of the offshore or ‘black market’ threat,” read the report.
However, it must be noted that the researcher’s methodology did not include similar conversations with operators present in the Nordics.
Do banks provide the solution?
Going forward, the researchers underscored the need to develop a standardised method for measuring the offshore gaming industry. Currently, methodological choices, data resources and political interests can have a large impact on the estimates produced.
In particular, the report observed that most estimates, whether from regulators, government or the industry, rely on data from H2 Gambling Capital, a private data provider.
However, the academics believe that the company has limited transparency, as little information is released on its metrics and assumptions made when providing estimates.
Part of the transformation of methodology is procuring new sources of data, and banks could be a fruitful source, according to the researchers.
Though this may be complicated by legal challenges and would likely require a government mandate, the study says that transaction data would allow better measuring of spending, including to the black market through payment intermediaries, which would traditionally be hard to gather for current researchers.
“Standardised measurement would require reliable data that is based on scientific best practice in terms of representativeness, reliability, and transparency. To achieve access to the best possible data, formal collaboration across stakeholders, including regulators, payment providers, and web operators is needed,” the academics concluded.
