Automated ad growth could see Meta surge ahead of Alphabet’s global ad revenue by 2026.
Meta’s digital ad revenue is expected to reach $243.46bn in 2026, overtaking Google’s $239.54bn, according to a forecast by Emarketer. If the projected revenues materialise, this could be a major upset, and the first time ever that Meta has overtaken the search giant.
“In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated,” said Max Willens, principal analyst at Emarketer. “Meta has long understood that scale, network effects, and habits are more important than anything else in digital media. It has carefully built and defended the advantages it has in all three areas.”
Google still controls 26.4% of global adspend, but its share has been falling since 2021. While Meta’s share has grown steadily, set to reach 26.8% of worldwide adspend later in the year.
Meta is growing at an unprecedented rate, while Alphabet’s Google is growing steadily at 11.9% this year. Meta has diversified its ad revenue across its entire ecosystem, with tools like AI-generated ad creatives, Advantage+, and its automated stack helping to drive performance across both Instagram and Facebook – with reels contributing as a large beneficiary.
“As a result, advertisers are getting better bang for their buck, and that’s pulling more ad dollars onto the platform. For the vast majority of advertisers, the question is not whether they should spend money on Meta’s apps – the question is how much they should spend,” Willens said.
“Google has plenty of levers it can pull to try to speed up growth, but the diversity of its business– it generates billions of dollars in subscriber revenues from YouTube Premium, for example – may make it harder for it to leapfrog past Meta in terms of digital ad revenues.”
Meta is expanding across a number of different vertices; WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram, and Threads – whereas Google lacks inventory surfaces in social environments. Short form video monetisation has scaled into a significant ad engine, which has boosted inventory and engagement.
Alicia Gehring, senior vice president, media strategy at independent agency WHITE64, said: “The divergence between Google and Meta growth reflects a broader behavioural shift: consumers are rapidly embracing AI as both an information and decision-making layer. As that behaviour evolves, reliance on traditional search as the default entry point is beginning to erode.”
The use of automated tools, while proving successful in the short-term, will continue to be assessed as the industry evolves.
She added: “That said, walled garden AI tools have not yet proven they can outperform experienced media buyers. While they lower the barrier to entry for small businesses, they are not a replacement for cross-platform strategy, data integration, and nuanced optimisation. For larger advertisers, forced use of platform tools, especially in optimisation, risks limiting performance rather than enhancing it, and they should expect backlash.”
Both Meta and Google are using automated tools (alongside the vast majority of the industry), but ad revenue through social platforms is proving a key growth driver for Meta – with the company able to quickly scale its efforts across its platforms.
“As AI adoption accelerates, we expect continued fragmentation of how consumers discover, evaluate, and purchase. Publishers and platforms that embed AI-driven, commerce-enabled experiences directly into content will capture more of that intent. In that environment, growth will favour those who can combine scale, engagement, and measurable outcomes, rather than relying on legacy search dominance alone,” Gehring concluded.
