Attribution, measurement and the last-click model were once again the hot topic of conversations at PI Live Europe. But how can the industry move on from that?
Attribution was a big talking point at the Affiliate Leaders Summit in Lisbon, as I addressed in my column last week.
This week, I was at PI Live Europe, and the topic has come up once again. As you walked through the exhibitor hall, there was a lot of chatter about tracking and measurement. To some degree, that in itself (something the industry has prided itself on) has become part of the challenges it faces now.
For 20 years marketers have been telling brands that affiliate marketing is a measurable, efficient, low-risk and incredibly valuable channel. But AI, changing consumer behaviour and the collapsing of the funnel, is forcing marketers to rethink where affiliate marketing sits in the media plan.
It also raises the question of whether affiliate marketing, in its current model, has become redundant?
“We built our own ceiling in this industry”, Adam Ross, chief executive of Awin, tells attendees sitting in on his panel. “We built an industry based on last-click CPA, and this I describe as like a prison.”
On the one hand, this is easy to explain to advertisers and “very accountable”, however, it also “limits the budgets we have access to and fails to recognise the brilliant value and effort that many of the partners in our space deliver on a day-to-day basis”.
In order to break out of this prison, Ross believes that “advertisers need to accept the limitations of that as a monetisation model”.
That’s not saying affiliate marketing is dead, in fact far from it
Analysis by Cognitive Market Research estimated the affiliate marketing industry to be valued at $18.4bn in 2025 and rising to $20bn in 2026. It also projects the channel to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% through to 2033 to reach $35.4bn.
The industry has a ‘spending problem’
So what is causing the stagnation many marketers and networks are describing?
The affiliate industry doesn’t have a “performance problem”, explains Todd Crawford, co-founder of impact.com, “it has a spending problem”.
“Affiliate lacks the ability to spend money quickly. […] So when a CMO has extra money, they’re going to put it where they can spend it tomorrow, not next week,” he says, adding that platforms like Google and Meta are often where that spend goes.
Part of the reason for that is affiliate marketing has historically worked in silos, often being part of the web or commerce team, rather than the marketing team. And actually, the measurement element and the “ability to know what happened is part of the problem”, highlights Santi Pierini, chief executive of CJ – an affiliate network owned by Publicis Groupe.
Pierini goes on to describe that between the major affiliate networks, they’ve just been “swapping logos” over the years.
“Even though the industry has grown, our portion of it shrinks every year. We’re constantly renegotiating with clients for less money and even more in performance.”
The panel, which also included Sean Sewell, co-founder and senior vice president, EMEA at Partnerize, agreed that the customer journey is much more complex and varied – a consensus that every affiliate marketer I’ve recently spoken with shares.
Therefore, there is a danger that if affiliates do not start to look at the whole customer journey, and continue with one measurement technique that is based on last click, “we will destroy all that value”, argues Ross.
Affiliate as a full-funnel programme
One of the biggest benefits of shifting the mindset is budgets. Marketing budgets for social media were originally under brand awareness or earned media, but it has become a much more full funnel strategy, with commerce at the centre.
There’s an argument to be had for pulling some of that budget in social across to affiliate marketing, says Pierini. Then for AI-led journeys, he points out:
“We have a stat that says 83% of all shopping through LLMs are coming from affiliate sources, our creators, our publishers.
“So if you take brand-led, social-led, AI-led and you keep expanding on that, now we’re pulling budget from the walled gardens early in the process and that’s how we [the industry] can grow.”
New religion
Essentially what Pierini and his fellow panellists alluded to was affiliate marketing becoming a full-funnel strategy for brands. It’s clear influence on purchases is moving upstream and away from the last click. Like it or not the trend raises the question of how do you measure?
The c-suite has become obsessed with measurement and incrementality. Most modern brands use marketing mix modelling (MMM) as their measurement framework, which is largely based on impressions.
Sewell adds: “If we can start pulling in impression data, it’s going to give us a seat at the table, give us more apples to apples comparisons. Right now, the CFO and CMOs are looking at their MMMs and there is a big gap in the data we’re providing and that’s hurting us.
“[…] They’re comparing us to their other channels, and so even though we can sometimes track those other channels and show our perspective on it, we need to get in sync with their decision.”
If the modern affiliate marketer can lean into that full funnel programme, Ross believes if half of spend gets puts into the demand-side such as creators, influencers, media sites and then it is complimented with traditional affiliate, there’s an opportunity to “build something that sits outside of the walled gardens, where you have greater control”. And that is the sweet spot for growth.
The last click is not dead. It’s been demoted. But the question still remains on how the industry measures influence.
