Social media is leading the way with spend expected to reach $500bn by 2028.
Global adspend is forecast to grow by 11.9% this year to over $1.3trn, according to WARC Media’s global adspend report.
Social media is expected to show the strongest growth, soaring 21.3% up to $394.6bn, and is on course to reach over $500bn by 2028.
This builds on the strong growth in previous years – 10% in both 2025 and 2024 – despite consumers being more cautious. In 2027, growth is projected to slow slightly to 8.4%, reaching roughly $1.4trn.
Social media, search, and retail media are forecast to account for 66% of total global adspend in 2026 and is predicted to grow to 70% by 2028.
Paul Hickey, managing director of SAMY UK told Affiliate Leaders: “It’s no surprise to see social leading the growth. We know it’s where brand desire and connection happen today. But this increased spend requires a smarter approach to the full social universe if brands are going to maximise their ROI.
“As feeds fill up with content, simply throwing more budget at social won’t cut it. To make that increased spend work harder, creative differentiation and variety are critical to beating content fatigue.”
There are alternatives to paid social Hickey said: “Using a network of micro-creators can generate comparable reach at a similar cost, for instance. And as TikTok Shop, YouTube shopping and other affiliate-driven models continue to grow, influencers can increasingly drive conversion as well as reach, while building connections with consumers that go beyond the product.”
Other areas of growth
According to WARC’s forecast, video-on-demand (VOD), retail media, search, and digital out-of-home are all expected to grow by double-digits this year at 15%, 14%, 14% and 13%, respectively.
Total video in 2026 is set to reach $479.1bn, and will account for 35.7% of total global ad investment, which is expected to rise to 37% by 2028.
While rising geopolitical uncertainty and consumer pressure has hindered some global adspend, it has not prohibited the sector from growth overall.
Suzy Young, head of WARC Media Data, said: “These are unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending. This apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly uneven economy, where growth – particularly from the AI boom – is benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others.”
Total global adspend is set to increase by almost 8% in 2028, reaching $1.57trn – which suggests the market is set to be 2.3 times bigger than it was just under a decade ago in 2019.
Increased spending is, in part, fuelled by big tech. Tech platforms Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet are projected to reach a combined market share of just under two-thirds (59.7%) of global adspend, excluding China. This is equivalent to roughly $659.6bn, and is set to rise to 61.5%, or $804.1bn, in 2028.
Alphabet is expected to hold onto its 30% share of spend until 2028, while Meta and Amazon are projected to see increases of 2.2 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points respectively (from a 22% and 8% market share in 2026).
The forecast report follows the Advertising Association (AA) and WARC’s Q1 expenditure report, which showed adspend in the UK increased by 9.3% year-on-year (YoY), reaching a total of £11.7bn.
