Catena Media moves away from reporting keyword rankings and looks to focus on its new open exchange platform, Traffic X.
The new normal for affiliates is becoming increasingly clear, as Catena Media admitted it must accelerate its shift from relying on search rankings alone as it continues to navigate turbulence.
The embattled firm highlighted its latest revenue declines reflect a rapid and fundamental shift in the search landscape.
The media group reported a revenue decline in Q3 of 30% year-on-year (YoY) and 14% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to €8.2m amid this search volatility. Revenue through the first nine months of the year remained largely stable, coming in at €30m compared to €31m during the same period last year.
Adjusted EBITDA fell even further, dropping 75% to €0.7m (Q3 2025: €2.9m), as new depositing customers fell by 14%.
Significant changes to Google’s algorithms and the rise of AI-led search and discovery have continued to threaten the core revenue of many of igaming’s largest affiliates, forcing them to diversify.
Catena’s chief executive officer, Manuel Stan, told investors during the company’s third-quarter trading update: “Q3 made clear that Catena Media can no longer rely on search rankings alone. This impact extends beyond Catena Media and the industry that we are part of to every other industry reliant on organic search.
“These results reflect a rapid and fundamental shift in the search landscape. Earlier this year, the board and management began exploring avenues for reshaping the business beyond traditional SEO affiliation. This will see Catena evolving beyond affiliation and lead generation into a technical infrastructure and intelligence platform.”
Split by vertical, Catena’s sports segment revenue decreased 41% YoY to €1.1m, and its casino revenues similarly declined 28% YoY to €7.1m. Majority (87%) of the revenue is now derived from casino compared to 13% from sports.
The company also said it will no longer be reporting average keyword rankings, reflecting their diminished relevance in a new landscape shaped by generative search and automated results.
Stan said: “A position on the page no longer reliably predicts the clicks, traffic, or revenue as it once did. Search engines have continued to favour content that is less relevant, while increasingly personalised results have made it considerably harder for our audience to find us.
“Over the period, search engine algorithms became markedly more volatile as search results change at an unprecedented frequency.”
Prediction markets and pack rips
At the heart of Catena’s diversification pipeline is Traffic X, described by Stan as an open exchange that connects licensed publishers and advertisers.
Stan confirmed the beta launch is expected in Q1 2027, but he was tight-lipped on any revenue expectations for the venture, instead emphasising that the priority is building liquidity.
Catena’s capital expenditure doubled compared to Q3 2025 to €0.7m in recognition of the urgency of pushing forward with projects such as Traffic X.
Elsewhere, Catena is also looking to tap into prediction markets and pack rips, through the launch of PlayPicks, a discovery platform for prediction markets and investment in Collectbase, the parent company of the pack ripping platform, Repackz.
While the former has received plenty of publicity through the rise of companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket, pack-ripping is beginning to emerge as a sector of growth potential adjacent to igaming that looks to tap into the popularity of collectable cards featuring characters or sportstars.
According to the Bank of America, digital pack rips have grown from a market of 50,000 active users to 1.7 million in the last 12 months and have an annualised run rate of $2bn in revenue.
During Q3, Catena confirmed the appointment of Martin Zetterlund as its interim chief technology officer. Stefan Grech has also been hired as the company’s senior vice president of technology with a focus on AI and automation.
Though a challenging quarter for the firm, Stan emphasised that he was reassured by the fact that revenue per visit has continued to rise quarter-on-quarter for the last eight quarters off the back of a renewed focus on maximising the value of each visit.
He said: “We have given our product teams greater autonomy and authority, enabling them to act faster in defence of our rankings and in pursuit of stronger positions. Our efforts to get more value from every visit, including through loyalty programs, are beginning to pay off.”
